Fire in arctic tundra of Alaska: past fire activity, future fire potential, and significance for land management and ecology
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A multidecadal analysis of fire in Alaskan Arctic tundra was completed using records from the Alaska Large Fire Database. Tundra vegetation fires are defined by the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map and divided into five tundra ecoregions of Alaska. A detailed review of fire records in these regions is presented, and an analysis of future fire potential was performed based on future climate scenarios. The average size of tundra fire based on the data record is 22 km2 (5454 acres). Fires show a mean size of 10 km2 (2452 acres) and median of 0.064 km2 (16 acres), indicating small fires are common. Although uncommon, 16 fires larger than 300 km2 (74 132 acres) have been recorded across four ecoregions and all five decades. Warmer summers with extended periods of drying are expected to increase fire activity as indicated by fire weather index. The implications of the current fire regime and potential changes in fire regime are discussed in the context of land management and ecosystem services. Current fire management practices and land-use planning in Alaska should be specifically tailored to the tundra region based on the current fire regime and in anticipation of the expected change in fire regime projected with climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".