Pervious Concrete Pavement Performance Modeling Using the Bayesian Statistical Technique
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Because pervious concrete pavement (PCP) has a porous structure and can percolate water to an underground layer, it has been proposed as a stormwater best management practice (BMP), an environmentally friendly product, and sustainable paving materials. This porosity makes PCP susceptible to freeze-thaw damage in cold climates. Therefore, PCP has not been widely applied and investigated in such a climate. Long-term performance data are rarely available, and no performance model has been developed for PCP to date. The main objective of this research is to integrate expert knowledge (using the Markov-chain process) and experimental data (PCP field investigations) to build a performance model for PCP through incorporation of the Bayesian technique. The combination of these sources of data is an efficient and effective approach to build a performance model for a new type of pavement, such as PCP, which has not had a long-term performance database. As a result, a robust linear performance model is developed and applied to predict the service life of PCP. The service life of PCP is estimated to be approximately nine years using the developed performance model. In general, the expert knowledge leads to more conservative results rather than experimental data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".