Three Epidemics of Invasive Multidrug-Resistant<i>Salmonella</i>Bloodstream Infection in Blantyre, Malawi, 1998–2014
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme (MLW) has routinely collected specimens for blood culture from febrile patients, and cerebrospinal fluid from patients with suspected meningitis, presenting to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH), Blantyre, Malawi, since 1998. METHODS: We present bloodstream infection (BSI) and meningitis surveillance data from 1998 to 2014. Automated blood culture, manual speciation, serotyping, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing were performed at MLW. Population data for minimum-incidence estimates in urban Blantyre were drawn from published estimates. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2014, 167,028 blood cultures were taken from adult and pediatric medical patients presenting to QECH; Salmonella Typhi was isolated on 2054 occasions (1.2%) and nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) serovars were isolated 10,139 times (6.1%), of which 8017 (79.1%) were Salmonella Typhimurium and 1608 (15.8%) were Salmonella Enteritidis. There were 392 cases of NTS meningitis and 9 cases of Salmonella Typhi meningitis. There have been 3 epidemics of Salmonella BSI in Blantyre; Salmonella Enteritidis from 1999 to 2002, Salmonella Typhimurium from 2002 to 2008, and Salmonella Typhi, which began in 2011 and was ongoing in 2014. Multidrug resistance has emerged in all 3 serovars and is seen in the overwhelming majority of isolates, while resistance to third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones is currently uncommon but has been identified. CONCLUSIONS: Invasive Salmonella disease in Malawi is dynamic and not clearly attributable to a single risk factor, although all 3 epidemics were associated with multidrug resistance. To inform nonvaccine and vaccine interventions, reservoirs of disease and modes of transmission require further investigation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".