Can wheatears weather the Atlantic? Modeling nonstop trans-Atlantic flights of a small migratory songbird
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Oceans represent extreme ecological barriers for land birds. Yet the Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe leucorhoa), a 25-g songbird, negotiates the North Atlantic Ocean twice yearly between Canadian natal and sub-Saharan wintering grounds. Each autumn, these migrants appear to have 2 options: (1) a detour via Greenland, Iceland, and/or Europe to reduce the extent of open-ocean flights or (2) an astonishing nonstop flight of 4,000–5,000 km without resting opportunities between eastern Canada and northwestern Africa. We assessed the feasibility and reliability of nonstop trans-Atlantic migration of Northern Wheatears from Canada to Africa using an individual-based model incorporating flight costs and autumnal wind data from 1979 to 2011. Prevalent wind conditions were supportive of nonstop migration, especially at high altitudes and when winds at departure were favorable. For modeled individuals with high fuel loads, flying at altitudes of ∼3,000 m, successful nonstop trans-Atlantic flights reached Africa on 62% of departure days. On 24% of unsuccessful departure days, individuals could have first stopped in Europe before continuing to Africa. Durations of successful flights varied between 31 and 68 hr, with significantly shorter flights after mid-September. It remains unclear whether natural selection might favor nonstop ocean crossings by O. o. leucorhoa between North America and Africa, but we conclude that reliably supportive winds en route and potentially huge time savings render it a feasible migration strategy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".