A Test of Recent Inferences of Net Polar Ice Mass Balance based on Long-Wavelength Gravity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A comprehensive analysis of satellite datasets has estimated that the ice sheets of Greenland, West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and East Antarctica experienced a net mass loss of −100 ± 92 Gt yr−1 over the period 1992–2000 and −298 ± 58 Gt yr−1 over the period 2000–11, representing an increase of −198 ± 109 Gt yr−1 between the two epochs. The authors demonstrate that the time rate of change of the degree-four zonal harmonic of Earth's gravitational potential provides an independent check on these mass balances that is less sensitive to uncertainties that have contaminated previous analyses of the degree-2 zonal harmonic [e.g., due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), solid Earth body tides, and core–mantle coupling]. For the period 2000–11, the signal implied by the ice sheet mass flux cited above is (3.8 ± 0.6) × 10−11 yr−1, whereas the change in the harmonic across the two epochs is (2.3 ± 1.1) × 10−11 yr−1. In comparison, using satellite laser ranging (SLR) data, the authors estimate a GIA-corrected value of (3.8 ± 0.6) × 10−11 yr−1 for the epoch 2000–11 and a change across the two epochs of (5.3 ± 1.6) × 10−11 yr−1. The authors conclude that the former supports recent estimates of melting over the last decade, whereas the latter suggests either that estimated melt rates for the earlier epoch were too high or that the uncertainty associated with the SLR-based inference of during the earlier epoch is underestimated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".