Metabolic syndrome and its single traits as risk factors for diabetes in people with impaired glucose tolerance: the STOP-NIDDM trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The STOP-NIDDM trial was an international, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised study in people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). They were treated with an alpha-glucosidase inhibitor, acarbose, to prevent diabetes; the overall number needed to treat (NNT) was 11. In a secondary analysis, we considered the impact of single traits and overall metabolic syndrome (MetS) respectively on risk of diabetes and NNT respectively. In all, there were 1,368 patients. They were followed up for 3.3 years, and the prevalence of MetS was 61%. Multivariate analysis revealed treatment group 2-hour (post-challenge) plasma glucose, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1C), triglycerides and leukocyte count as independent predictors. The annual incidence of diabetes in the placebo group with MetS was 18.7% vs. 11.2% in patients without MetS; the corresponding figures in the acarbose group were 13.5% and 9.4%, respectively. The NNT in patients was 5.8 in patients with MetS and 16.5 in those without MetS. In conclusion, most single traits and overall MetS label a very high-risk group in people with IGT. People with MetS reach a NNT to prevent development of new diabetes with acarbose of 5.8.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".