Multi‐temporal Mapping of Burned Forest over Canada Using Satellite‐based Change Metrics
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A procedure for continental‐scale mapping of burned boreal forest at 10‐day intervals was developed for application to coarse resolution satellite imagery. The basis of the technique is a multiple logistic regression model parameterized using 1998 SPOT‐4 VEGETATION clear‐sky composites and training sites selected across Canada. Predictor features consisted of multi‐temporal change metrics based on reflectance and two vegetation indices, which were normalized to the trajectory of background vegetation to account for phenological variation. Spatial‐contextual tests applied to the logistic model output were developed to remove noise and increase the sensitivity of detection. The procedure was applied over Canada for the 1998‐2000 fire seasons and validated using fire surveys and burned area statistics from forest fire management agencies. The area of falsely mapped burns was found to be small (3.5% commission error over Canada), and most burns larger than 10 km2 were accurately detected and mapped (R2 = 0.90, P<0.005, n = 91 for burns in two provinces). Canada‐wide satellite burned area was similar, but consistently smaller by comparison to statistics compiled by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (by 17% in 1998, 16% in 1999, and 3% in 2000).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it