Synchronous Cycling of Ichthyophoniasis with Chinook Salmon Density Revealed during the Annual Yukon River Spawning Migration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Populations of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Yukon River declined by more than 57% between 2003 and 2010, probably the result of a combination of anthropogenic and environmental factors. One possible contributor to this decline is Ichthyophonus, a mesomycetozoan parasite that has previously been implicated in significant losses of fish, including Chinook salmon. A multiyear epidemiological study of ichthyophoniasis in the Yukon River revealed that disease prevalence and Chinook salmon population abundance increased and decreased simultaneously (i.e., were concordant) from 1999 to 2010. The two values rose and fell synchronously 91% of the time for female Chinook salmon and 82% of the time for males; however, there was no significant correlation between Ichthyophonus prevalence and population abundance. This synchronicity might be explained by a single factor, such as a prey item that is critical to Chinook salmon survival as well as a source of Ichthyophonus infection. The host–parasite relationship between Ichthyophonus and migrating Chinook salmon from 2004 to 2010 was similar to that reported for the previous 5 years. During 2004–2010, overall disease prevalence was significantly higher among females (21%) than among males (8%), increased linearly with fish length for both males and females, and increased in both sexes as the fish progressed upriver. These regularly occurring features of host–parasite dynamics confirm a stable base of transmission for Ichthyophonus. However, from 2003 to 2010, disease prevalence decreased from 30% to just 8% in males and from 45% to 9% in females, paralleling a similar decline in Chinook salmon abundance during the same period. These findings may help clarify questions regarding the complex host–parasite dynamics that occur in marine species such as herrings Clupea spp., which have less well‐defined population structures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".