Satellite data identify decadal trends in the quality of <i><scp>P</scp>ygoscelis</i> penguin chick‐rearing habitat
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pygoscelis penguins are experiencing general population declines in their northernmost range whereas there are reported increases in their southernmost range. These changes are coincident with decadal-scale trends in remote sensed observations of sea ice concentrations (SIC) and sea surface temperatures (SST) during the chick-rearing season (austral summer). Using SIC, SST, and bathymetry, we identified separate chick-rearing niche spaces for the three Pygoscelis penguin species and used a maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) to spatially and temporally model suitable chick-rearing habitats in the Southern Ocean. For all Pygoscelis penguin species, the MaxEnt models predict significant changes in the locations of suitable chick-rearing habitats over the period of 1982-2010. In general, chick-rearing habitat suitability at specific colony locations agreed with the corresponding increases or decreases in documented population trends over the same time period. These changes were the most pronounced along the West Antarctic Peninsula where there has been a rapid warming event during at least the last 50 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".