Diabetes in older people: Prevalence, incidence and its association with medium- and long-term mortality from all causes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To estimate the prevalence and incidence of self-reported diabetes and to study its association with medium- and long-term mortality from all causes in persons ≥65 years. A population-based cohort study begun in 1993. “Envejecer en Leganés” cohort (Madrid). A random sample of persons ≥65 years (n = 1277 in the 1993 baseline sample). Participants were classified as having diabetes if they so reported and had consulted a physician for this reason within the last year. Diabetes history was categorized in <10 and ≥10 years in 1993. Incidence density was calculated in 2-year periods in non-diabetic individuals (1965 persons/2 years). Vital status was recorded on 31 December 2011. The association between diabetes history ≥10 years and mortality at 6 and 18 years follow-up was studied by the Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression analyses after adjusting for age, sex, heart disease and comorbidity. The prevalence of self-reported diabetes rose from 10.3% in 1993 to 16.1% in 1999 (p ≤ 0.001) and was higher in women than men (p ≤ 0.05). Total incidence density was 2.6 cases/100 persons/2 years (95% CI: 2.0–3.3). Medium- and long-term mortality was higher in persons with diabetes history ≥10 years than in non-diabetic individuals (HR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2–3.3 and HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1–2.5, respectively). In diabetics with history <10 years the HR was 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9–1.9) and HR: 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2–1.9, respectively). Although diabetes is clearly associated with increased risk of mortality, it is significant only for patients with ≥10 years’ history of diabetes. Calcular la prevalencia y la incidencia de diabetes autorreferida y analizar su asociación con la mortalidad general a medio y a largo plazo en personas ≥ 65 años. Estudio de cohortes de base poblacional iniciado en 1993. Cohorte «Envejecer en Leganés» (Madrid). Muestra aleatoria de los ≥ 65 años (n = 1.277 en 1993). Diabético: autorreferido y haber visitado al médico por este motivo el último año. Antigüedad de diabetes: más y menos de 10 años en 1993. Prevalencia en 1993, 1995, 1997 y 1999. Densidad de incidencia calculada para periodos bianuales (1.965 personas/2 años). Estado vital registrado a 31 de diciembre de 2011. La asociación entre diabetes y mortalidad a 6 y 18 años se estudió mediante Kaplan-Meier y regresión de Cox, ajustando por edad, sexo, enfermedades del corazón y comorbilidad. La prevalencia de diabetes autorreferida aumentó desde el 10,3% (1993) hasta el 16,1% (1999) (p ≤ 0,001), siendo superior en mujeres (p ≤ 0,05). La incidencia de diabetes fue de 2,66 casos por 100 personas/2 años (IC 95%: 1,9-3,3). La mortalidad a medio y a largo plazo fue mayor en diabéticos con ≥ 10 años que en no diabéticos (HR: 2,0; IC 95%: 1,2-3,3, y HR: 1,7; IC 95%: 1,1-2,5, respectivamente). En diabéticos < 10 años el HR para mortalidad fue 1,3 (IC 95%: 0,9-1,9) y 1,5 (IC 95%: 1,2-1,9), respectivamente. Aunque padecer diabetes se asocia a un aumento de la mortalidad, esta asociación es significativa solo para los pacientes con historia de diabetes igual o superior a 10 años.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".