Clinical and temporal patterns of severe pneumonia causing critical illness during Hajj
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading cause of hospitalization during Hajj and susceptibility and transmission may be exacerbated by extreme spatial and temporal crowding. We describe the number and temporal onset, co-morbidities, and outcomes of severe pneumonia causing critical illness among pilgrims. METHOD: A cohort study of all critically ill Hajj patients, of over 40 nationalities, admitted to 15 hospitals in 2 cities in 2009 and 2010. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data, and variables necessary for calculation of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV scores were collected. RESULTS: There were 452 patients (64.6% male) who developed critical illness. Pneumonia was the primary cause of critical illness in 123 (27.2%) of all intensive care unit (ICU) admissions during Hajj. Pneumonia was community (Hajj)-acquired in 66.7%, aspiration-related in 25.2%, nosocomial in 3.3%, and tuberculous in 4.9%. Pneumonia occurred most commonly in the second week of Hajj, 95 (77.2%) occurred between days 5-15 of Hajj, corresponding to the period of most extreme pilgrim density. Mechanical ventilation was performed in 69.1%. Median duration of ICU stay was 4 (interquartile range [IQR] 1-8) days and duration of ventilation 4 (IQR 3-6) days. Commonest preexisting co-morbidities included smoking (22.8%), diabetes (32.5%), and COPD (17.1%). Short-term mortality (during the 3-week period of Hajj) was 19.5%. CONCLUSION: Pneumonia is a major cause of critical illness during Hajj and occurs amidst substantial crowding and pilgrim density. Increased efforts at prevention for at risk pilgrim prior to Hajj and further attention to spatial and physical crowding during Hajj may attenuate this risk.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it