Multicentury history of western spruce budworm outbreaks in interior Douglas-fir forests near Kamloops, British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) is a native defoliator of forests in the interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco) forests of British Columbia, Canada. Dendrochronological techniques and the software program OUTBREAK were used to reconstruct a defoliation history of Douglas-fir for 19 forest sites near Kamloops in central British Columbia. By comparing the radial-growth response of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. Laws. & C. Laws.) with that of Douglas-fir growing in nearby but separate stands, eight western spruce budworm outbreaks over the past 300 years were distinguished. Although there is considerable variation in the timing and duration of these western spruce budworm events at the stand level, synchronous outbreaks have occurred in approximately 30- to 43-year cycles. Spectral analyses of a composite time series from all stands showed similar and consistent intervals between outbreaks. Climatic variation appears to have been important to budworm outbreaks in the 20th century. Notable outbreaks tended to occur during years with average spring air temperatures following winters with less than average precipitation. Based on this finding, it is proposed that with high over-winter survival rates and a longer growing season, the duration of outbreaks may increase in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".