Tornado hazard assessment for southern Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Southern Ontario experiences a number of natural hazards including tornado. However, quantitative tornado hazard assessment in terms of annual probability of exceeding a given wind speed has not been reported for this region. To carry out such a tornado hazard assessment, a statistical characterization of tornado parameters in southern Ontario has been developed using the tornado database of Ontario and that of the neighbouring regions in the United States. These parameters include the tornado occurrence rate, intensity, path length and width, and motion direction. Using the developed statistics and an existing wind field model, a probabilistic assessment of the tornado hazard in terms of wind speed is obtained for southern Ontario. The analysis suggests that for point-like structures such as residential structures, which are usually designed for a 30 year return period wind speed with a load factor of 1.5, the probability that a tornado wind speed exceeds the factored 30 year wind is very low. However, for line structures or elongated systems such as transmission lines, the tornado hazard becomes significant and increases with an increase in the length of the system. Key words: tornado hazard, wind speed, transmission line, probability, wind field, southern Ontario.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".