Accurate computation of the MGF of the lognormal distribution and its application to sum of lognormals
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sums of lognormal random variables (RVs) are of wide interest in wireless communications and other areas of science and engineering. Since the distribution of lognormal sums is not log-normal and does not have a closed-form analytical expression, many approximations and bounds have been developed. This paper develops two computational methods for the moment generating function (MGF) or the characteristic function (CHF) of a single lognormal RV. The first method uses classical complex integration techniques based on steepest-descent integration. The saddle point of the integrand is explicitly expressed by the Lambert function. The steepest-descent (optimal) contour and two closely-related closed-form contours are derived. A simple integration rule (e.g., the midpoint rule) along any of these contours computes the MGF/CHF with high accuracy. The second approach uses a variation on the trapezoidal rule due to Ooura and Mori. Importantly, the cumulative distribution function of lognormal sums is derived as an alternating series and convergence acceleration via the Epsilon algorithm is used to reduce, in some cases, the computational load by a factor of 10 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">6</sup> ! Overall, accuracy levels of 13 to 15 significant digits are readily achievable.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it