Atmospheric forcing on the drift of Arctic sea ice in 1989–2009
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Inter‐annual variations in Arctic sea ice drift speed (V i ) in 1989–2009 were analyzed on the basis of buoy data and atmospheric circulation indices. In the circumpolar and eastern Arctic and the Fram Strait, the annual mean V i was best explained by the sea level pressure (SLP) difference across the Arctic Ocean along meridians 270°E and 90°E, called as the Central Arctic Index (CAI). In general, V i was more strongly related to CAI than to the Dipole Anomaly (DA). This was because CAI is calculated across the Transpolar Drift Stream (TDS), whereas the pressure patterns affecting DA sometimes move far from TDS. CAI also has the benefit of being a simple index, insensitive to the calculation method applied, whereas DA, as the second mode of a principal component analysis, is sensitive both to the time period and area of calculations. In summer, the circulation index most important for the circumpolar mean V i was the SLP gradient across the Fram Strait. In the Canadian Basin in winter, the Arctic Oscillation index was most important. Circulation indices explained 48% of the variance of the annual mean V i in the circumpolar Arctic, 38% in the eastern Arctic, and 25% in the Canadian Basin. The local air‐ice momentum flux ( τ ) was always better than the 10 m wind speed in explaining V i , but τ outperformed the circulation indices only in the Fram Strait. Atmospheric forcing did not explain the increasing trend in V i in the period 1989–2009.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".