One- and Two-Year Predictors of Excess Weight Gain among Elementary Schoolchildren in Multiethnic, Low-Income, Inner-City Neighborhoods
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Longitudinal studies are needed to increase understanding of the causes of childhood obesity. To identify 1- and 2-year predictors of excess weight gain among preadolescents, the authors conducted a prospective cohort study of fourth- and fifth-grade students in 16 elementary schools located in multiethnic, low-income neighborhoods in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, that were participating in the evaluation of a school-based heart health promotion program. Subjects included 2,318 children aged 9-12 years with baseline and 1-year follow-up data and 633 children aged 9-11 years with baseline and 2-year follow-up data. One-year predictors of highest decile of change in body mass index (BMI) identified in logistic regression analyses included baseline BMI of 90th percentile or more (odds ratio (OR) = 2.66, 95% confidence interval: 1.80, 3.94) in boys and baseline BMI of 90th percentile or more (OR = 2.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.46, 3.76), no sports outside school (OR = 1.90, 95% confidence interval: 1.18, 3.06), and playing video games everyday (OR = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 5.92) in girls. Two-year predictors included baseline BMI of 90th percentile or more (OR = 3.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.52, 7.01), no sports outside school (OR = 2.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 4.77), and least active (OR = 2.18, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 4.71) in boys; only baseline BMI of 90th percentile or more (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 4.81) was significant in girls. Results suggest the need for interventions to promote increased physical activity in children.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it