Event-based biosurveillance of respiratory disease in Mexico, 2007–2009: connection to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The emergence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus in North America and its subsequent global spread highlights the public health need for early warning of infectious disease outbreaks. Event-based biosurveillance, based on local- and regional-level Internet media reports, is one approach to early warning as well as to situational awareness. This study analyses media reports in Mexico collected by the Argus biosurveillance system between 1 October 2007 and 31 May 2009. Results from Mexico are compared with the United States and Canadian media reports obtained from the HealthMap system. A significant increase in reporting frequency of respiratory disease in Mexico during the 2008-9 influenza season relative to that of 2007-8 was observed (p<0.0001). The timing of events, based on media reports, suggests that respiratory disease was prevalent in parts of Mexico, and was reported as unusual, much earlier than the microbiological identification of the pandemic virus. Such observations suggest that abnormal respiratory disease frequency and severity was occurring in Mexico throughout the winter of 2008-2009, though its connection to the emergence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus remains unclear.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it