Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds over the Prairies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Using data from 13 climate stations on the Canadian Prairies, together with opaque cloud cover and daily snow depth, to analyze the winter climate transitions with snow, we find that a snow cover acts as a fast climate switch. Surface temperature falls by about 10 K with fresh snowfall and rises by a similar amount with snowmelt, while the daily range of relative humidity falls to around 5–15% with snow cover. These are robust climate signals. For every 10% decrease in days with snow cover over the Canadian Prairies, the mean October to April climate is warmer by about 1.4 K. Stratifying by daily mean opaque cloud cover across snow transitions shows the rapid shift within 5 days from a diurnal cycle dominated by shortwave cloud forcing to one dominated by longwave cloud forcing. We calculate the change in the surface radiative budget with snow using surface albedo data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and station longwave data. We find that with the fall‐winter snow transitions, the surface radiative heating is reduced by 50 Wm −2 , with 69% coming from the reduced net shortwave flux, resulting from the increased surface albedo and a small increase in effective cloud albedo, and 31% from a reduced incoming longwave flux. This drop in surface radiative heating is sufficient to produce a drop in the surface radiometric skin temperature of 11 K. We find that in winter, the monthly mean diurnal climate is more closely coupled to the diurnal shortwave forcing than the mean diurnal climate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".