On the expectation of total discounted operating costs up to default and its applications
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we first consider the expectation of the total discounted claim costs up to the time of ruin, and then, more generally, we study the expectation of the total discounted operating costs up to the time of default, which is the first passage time of a surplus process downcrossing a given level. These two quantities include the expected discounted penalty function at ruin or the Gerber–Shiu function, the expected total discounted dividends up to ruin, and other interesting quantities as special cases among a class of risk processes. As an illustration, we consider a piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk model. This model recovers many risk models appearing in the literature such as the compound Poisson risk models with interest, absolute ruin, dividends, multiple thresholds, and their dual models. We derive and solve the integro-differential equation for the expected present value of the total discounted operating costs up to default. The solutions to the expected present value of the total discounted operating costs up to default can be used as a unified approach to solving many ruin-related quantities. As applications, we derive explicit solutions for the expected accumulated utility up to ruin, the absolute ruin probability with varying borrowing rates, the expected total discounted claim costs up to ruin, the Gerber–Shiu function with two-sided jumps, and the price for a perpetual American put option with two-sided jumps.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it