Precaution in the harvest of Methuselah's clams the difficulty of getting timely feedback from slow-paced dynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Geoduck (Panopea abrupta) stocks are perceived as stable and their fisheries as sustainable, but this may reflect a mismatch between slow-paced dynamics (maximum recorded age 168 years) and short-term perception. Management is based on biological reference points, whose appropriateness as a means to ensure sustainability is limited by a sedentary lifestyle and long-term trends in productivity. Analysis of age frequency distributions for 19791983, postharvest recovery rates measured in Washington in tracts pulse-fished during the 1980s and 1990s, and age frequency distributions compiled in British Columbia during the 1990s consistently suggest that recruitment declined for decades (long before the onset of the fishery), reaching a minimum around 1975, and rebounded afterwards. In such scenario, reliance on biological-reference-point-based harvest rules without timely feedback could accelerate population declines, eventually driving an apparently sustainable fishery to collapse. The merits of approaches that rely on monitoring and feedback using data-driven decision rules are stressed. Transition from a biological-reference-point-based strategy to one based on monitoring and feedback will demand a shift in research focus to the design of practical monitoring programs and the evaluation of management procedures by means of simulations. For geoducks and other long-lived organisms, monitoring should integrate data informative at different temporal scales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".