The frequency of connection of coastal water bodies to the ocean predicts <i>Carcinus maenas</i> invasion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Semi‐enclosed coastal water bodies range from permanently open estuaries to lagoons that are periodically isolated from the ocean. The proportion of time these are connected to the ocean may influence biological invasions by determining recruitment opportunities, environmental conditions, and available biogenic habitats. Along the south coast of New South Wales, Australia, we tested whether the abundance and persistence of the nonnative crab, Carcinus maenas , varies among coastal water bodies according to the proportion of time their entrance is open to the ocean. In quarterly sampling over 2 yr in 14 estuaries and lagoons varying in the percentage of time they were closed to the ocean from 0–100% crab presence and abundance was correlated with the proportion of time the entrances were open. Crabs were absent from lagoons with entrances closed to the ocean > 60% of the time and consistently detected in open estuaries. Crab abundance increased with the connectivity of coastal water bodies to the ocean and was influenced by habitat availability. In water bodies where conditions supported mangroves, this habitat contained higher abundances of crabs than seagrass, saltmarsh, oyster habitat, or bare substrate. Entrance morphology initially predicts the likelihood of the crabs' arrival by influencing their population connectivity between estuaries or lagoons and the open coast, and the probability of establishment by influencing abiotic conditions. Entrance morphology may also affect crab abundance by influencing the available habitats. Hence, the geomorphology of semi‐enclosed coastal water bodies should be considered when managing marine bioinvasions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".