An Epidemiological Analysis of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Miyazaki, Japan, 2010
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease occurred in Miyazaki, Japan, beginning in late March 2010. Here, we document the descriptive epidemiological features and investigate the between-farm transmission dynamics. As of 10 July 2010, a total of 292 infected premises have been confirmed with a cumulative incidence for cattle and pig herds of 8.5% and 36.4%, respectively, for the whole of Miyazaki prefecture. Pig herds were more likely to be infected than cattle herds (odds ratio = 4.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.2, 5.7]). Modelling analysis suggested that the relative susceptibility of a cattle herd is 4.2 times greater than a typical pig herd (95% CI: 3.9, 4.5), while the relative infectiousness of a pig herd is estimated to be 8.0 times higher than a cattle herd (95% CI: 5.0, 13.6). The epidemic peak occurred around mid-May, after which the incidence started to decline and the effective reproduction numbers from late May were mostly less than unity, although a vaccination programme in late May could have masked symptoms in infected animals. The infected premises were geographically confined to limited areas in Miyazaki, but sporadic long-distance transmissions were seen within the prefecture. Given that multiple outbreaks in Far East Asian countries have occurred since early 2010, continued monitoring and surveillance is deemed essential.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it