Differential twin concordance for multiple sclerosis by latitude of birthplace
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To address the inconsistency in the reported concordance of multiple sclerosis (MS) among twins by zygosity, sex, and latitude. METHODS: Four hundred eighteen medically documented monozygotic (MZ) and 380 same-sex dizygotic (DZ) pairs were ascertained from 1980 to 1992 and followed. The study population was representative of twins with multiple sclerosis. Twins from Canada and adjacent US states (at or above 41-42 degrees N) were considered "northern," and ancestry was dichotomized from descent from high-risk populations. Diagnosis before median age 29.3 years was considered "early." RESULTS: The MZ/DZ concordance ratio was 2.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-8.9) among men and 2.6 (95% CI, 1.5-4.5) among women. The average age at northern diagnosis was independent of ancestry and 2 years earlier for both MZ (p < 0.02) and DZ (p < 0.01) patients. Among DZ twins, concordance was independent of all characteristics. Among MZ twins, concordance was 1.9 times (95% CI, 1.2-3.2) greater among northern twins, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.1-3.6) times greater among twins with high-risk ancestry, and 2.1 (95% CI, 1.2-3.6) times greater if diagnosis was early. Ancestry and early diagnosis made independent significant contributions to the differential concordance by latitude. INTERPRETATION: Multiple sclerosis is similarly heritable by sex, and the apparent variation in MZ concordance by latitude is influenced by environmental and genetic factors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".