Alignment Errors Strongly Impact Likelihood-Based Tests for Comparing Topologies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Estimating phylogenetic trees from sequence data is an extremely challenging and important statistical task. Within the maximum-likelihood paradigm, the best tree is a point estimate. To determine how strongly the data support such an evolutionary scenario, a hypothesis testing methodology is required. To this end, the Kishino-Hasegawa (KH) test was developed to determine whether one topology is significantly more supported by the sequence data than another one. This test and its derivatives are widely used in phylogenetics and phylogenomics. Here, we show that the KH test is biased in the presence of alignment error and can lead to erroneous conclusions. Using simulations we demonstrated that due to alignment errors the KH test often rejects one of the competing topologies, even though both topologies are equally supported by the data. Specifically, we show that the KH test favors the guide tree used to align the analyzed sequences. Further, branch length optimization renders the test too conservative. We propose two possible corrections for these biases. First, we evaluated the impact of removing unreliable alignment columns and found out that it decreases the bias at the cost of substantially reducing the test's power. Second, we developed a parametric test that entirely abolishes the biases without data filtering. This test incorporates the alignment construction step into the test's hypothesis, thus removing the above guide tree effect. We extend this methodology for the case of multiple-topology comparisons and demonstrate the applicability of the new methodology on an exemplary data set.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.061 | 0.299 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".