The rotational stability of a convecting earth: assessing inferences of rapid TPW in the late cretaceous
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We outline a linearized rotational stability theory for predicting the time dependence of true polar wander (TPW) on a Maxwell viscoelastic body in response to mantle convective loading. The new theory is based on recent advances in ice age rotation theory. A comparison between predictions based on the new theory and analytic expressions for equilibrium (infinite-time) TPW on planetary models with elastic lithospheres demonstrates that the linearized theory can, in the case of loading at mid-latitudes, predict TPW of over 20° to better than 5 per cent accuracy. We present predictions of TPW for loading with periodic and net ramp-up time histories. Moreover, we compare the time dependence of TPW under assumptions consistent with the canonical equilibrium stability theory adopted in most previous analyses of convection-induced TPW, and a stability theory that includes two effects that have not been considered in previous geophysical analyses: (1) the so-called ‘remnant rotational bulge’ associated with the imperfect reorientation of the rotational bulge due to the presence of an elastic lithosphere; and (2) a stable (over the timescale of the forcing) excess ellipticity. As a first application of the new theory, we consider recent inferences of rapid (order 1 Myr) TPW motion of amplitude 10°-20° during the Late Cretaceous. We conclude that excursions of this amplitude and timescale are physically implausible.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".