The rotational stability of a convecting earth: assessing inferences of rapid TPW in the late cretaceous
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We outline a linearized rotational stability theory for predicting the time dependence of true polar wander (TPW) on a Maxwell viscoelastic body in response to mantle convective loading. The new theory is based on recent advances in ice age rotation theory. A comparison between predictions based on the new theory and analytic expressions for equilibrium (infinite-time) TPW on planetary models with elastic lithospheres demonstrates that the linearized theory can, in the case of loading at mid-latitudes, predict TPW of over 20° to better than 5 per cent accuracy. We present predictions of TPW for loading with periodic and net ramp-up time histories. Moreover, we compare the time dependence of TPW under assumptions consistent with the canonical equilibrium stability theory adopted in most previous analyses of convection-induced TPW, and a stability theory that includes two effects that have not been considered in previous geophysical analyses: (1) the so-called ‘remnant rotational bulge’ associated with the imperfect reorientation of the rotational bulge due to the presence of an elastic lithosphere; and (2) a stable (over the timescale of the forcing) excess ellipticity. As a first application of the new theory, we consider recent inferences of rapid (order 1 Myr) TPW motion of amplitude 10°-20° during the Late Cretaceous. We conclude that excursions of this amplitude and timescale are physically implausible.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".