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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition
Christopher J L Murray, Ryan M Barber, Kyle J Foreman, Ayşe Abbasoğlu Özgören, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Jerry Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Ilana N. Ackerman, Zanfina Ademi, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José Carmelo Adsuar, Ashkan Afshin, Emilie Agardh, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed I Albittar, Miguel Alegretti, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso‐Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Álvarez, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Emmanuel A Ameh, Heresh Amini, Walid Ammar, H Ross Anderson, Benjamin O. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Valentina Arsić‐Arsenijević, Al Artaman, Rana J Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia S Atkins, Marco Antonio Navarrete Ávila, Baffour Awuah, Victoria F Bachman, Alaa Badawi, Maria C Bahit, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Sı́món Barquera, Lars Barregård, Lope H. Barrero, Arindam Basu, Sanjay Basu, Mohammed Basulaiman, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Corina Benjet, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Habib Benzian, Eduardo Bernabé, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Tariku J. Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Kelly Bienhoff, Boris Bikbov, Stan Biryukov, Jed D Blore, Christopher D. Blosser, Fiona Blyth, Megan A Bohensky, Ian Bolliger, Berrak Bora Başara, Natan M. Bornstein, Dipan Bose, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert Bourne, Lindsay N. Boyers, Michael Brainin, Carol Brayne, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Adam Briggs, Peter Brooks, Jonathan C. Brown, Traolach Brugha, Rachelle Buchbinder, Geoffrey Buckle, Christine M. Budke, Anne Bulchis, Andrew GM Bulloch, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Hélène Carabin, Jonathan R. Carapetis, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Valeria Caso, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Rubén Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Fiorella Cavalleri, Alanur Çavlin, Vineet K Chadha, Jung‐Chen Chang, Fiona Charlson, Honglei Chen, Wanqing Chen, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Costas A. Christophi, Massimo Círillo, Matthew M Coates, Luc E. Coffeng, Megan Coggeshall, Valentina Colistro, Samantha Colquhoun, Graham Cooke, Cyrus Cooper, Leslie T. Cooper, Luis M Coppola, Monica Cortinovis, Michael H Criqui, John A. Crump, Lucía Cuevas‐Nasú, Hadi Danawi, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Emily Dansereau, Paul I. Dargan, Gail Davey, Adrian Davis, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Anand Dayama, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Borja del Pozo Cruz, Robert P Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Sarah Derrett, Don C. Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Mukesh Dherani, Cèsar Díaz‐Torné, Daniel Dicker, Eric L. Ding, Клара Докова, E. Ray Dorsey, Tim Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Herbert C. Duber, Beth E. Ebel, Karen Edmond, Yousef M Elshrek, Matthias Endres, Ermakov Sp, Holly E Erskine, Babak Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Farshad Farzadfar, Derek F J Fay, Valery L. Feigin, David T. Felson, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson Gomes Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Abraham D Flaxman, Thomas Fleming, Nataliya A Foigt, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, F. Gerry R. Fowkes, Urbano Fra Paleo, Richard C. Franklin, Thomas Fürst, Belinda J. Gabbe, Lynne Gaffikin, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Peter W. Gething, Katherine B. Gibney, Maurice Giroud, Giorgia Giussani, Héctor Gómez Dantés, Philimon Gona, Diego González-Medina, Richard A. Gosselin, Carolyn Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Hebe Gouda, Nicholas Graetz, H. C. Gugnani, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Holly Hagan, Yara A. Halasa, Randah R Hamadeh, Hannah Hamavid, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Graeme J. Hankey, Gillian M Hansen, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Josep María Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Roderick J. Hay, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Kyle R Heuton, Pouria Heydarpour, Hideki Higashi, Martha Hı́jar, Hans W. Hoek, Howard J. Hoffman, Hung Chak Ho, Mazeda Hossain, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Mohamed Hsaïri, Guoqing Hu, Cheng Huang, John J. Huang, Abdullatif Husseini, Chantal Huynh, Marissa Iannarone, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Farhad Islami, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Deborah Jarvis, Simerjot K Jassal, Sun Ha Jee, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Ying Jiang, Jost B. Jonas, Knud Juel, Haidong Kan, André Karch, Corine Karema, Chanté Karimkhani, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Konstantin Kazanjan, Andrew H. Kemp, André Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Yousef Khader, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Christian Kieling, Daniel Kim, Sungroul Kim, Yunjin Kim, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas M Kinge, Miia Kivipelto, Luke D. Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Ernst J. Kuipers, Chanda Kulkarni, Veena S. Kulkarni, G Anil Kumar, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Taavi Lai, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Hilton Y. Lam, Qing Lan, Van Charles Lansingh, Anders Larsson, Alicia E. B. Lawrynowicz, Janet L Leasher, James Leigh, Ricky Leung, Carly E Levitz, Bin Li, Li Y, Yongmei Li, Stephen S Lim, Steven E. Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda Lloyd, Katherine T Lofgren, Giancarlo Logroscino, Joannie Lortet‐Tieulent, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Robyn Lucas, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Stefan Ma, Michael F MacIntyre, Mark T. Mackay, Marek Majdán, Reza Malekzadeh, Wagner Marcenes, David J Margolis, Christopher Margono, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Joseph Masci, Mohammad T Mashal, Richard Matzopoulos, Bongani M. Mayosi, Tasara T Mazorodze, Neil McGill, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Abigail Mclain, Peter A. Meaney, Catalina Medina, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Michele Meltzer, Ziad A. Memish, George A. Mensah, Atte Meretoja, Francis Mhimbira, Renata Micha, Ted R. Miller, Edward J Mills, Philip B. Mitchell, Charles Mock, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ali H. Mokdad, Glen Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio C Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Thomas J. Montine, Meghan Mooney, Ami R. Moore, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Andrew Moran, Rintaro Mori, Joanna Moschandreas, Wilkister Nyaora Moturi, Madeline L Moyer, Dariush Mozaffarian, William Msemburi, Ulrich Müeller, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Erin C Mullany, Michele E Murdoch, Joseph Murray, Kinnari Murthy, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Kovin Naidoo, Luigi Naldi, Devina Nand, Vinay Nangia, K M Venkat Narayan, Chakib Nejjari, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Charles R. Newton, Marie Ng, Frida Ngalesoni, Grant Nguyen, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Sandra Nolte, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Rosana Norman, Bo Norrving, Luke Nyakarahuka, In‐Hwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Summer Lockett Ohno, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, John Nelson Opio, Katrina Ortblad, Alberto Ortíz, Amanda Pain, Jeyaraj Pandian, Carlo Irwin A. Panelo, Eun‐Kee Park, Jae‐Hyun Park, Scott B. Patten, George Patton, Vinod K Paul, Boris Pavlin, Neil Pearce, David M. Pereira, Rogelio Pérez‐Padilla, Fernando Pérez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Carrie B Peterson, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, Bryan K Phillips, David Phillips, Frédéric B. Piel, Dietrich Plaß, Dan Poenaru, Suzanne Polinder, Daniel Pope, Светлана Михайловна Попова, Richie Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Noela M Prasad, Rachel L. Pullan, Dima M. Qato, D. Alex Quistberg, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Murugesan Raju, Homie Razavi, K. Srinath Reddy, Amany Refaat, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Serge Resnikoff, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Lee Richardson, Jan Hendrik Richardus, D. Allen Roberts, David Rojas‐Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, David H. Rothstein, Jane Rowley, Nobhojit Roy, George Mugambage Ruhago, Mohammad Y. Saeedi, Sukanta Saha, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Uchechukwu K.A. Sampson, Juan Sanabria, Logan Sandar, Itamar S Santos, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Peter Scarborough, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Austin E Schumacher, David C. Schwebel, James G. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Peter Serina, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Teresa Shamah Levy, Siyi Shangguan, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Yukito Shinohara, Rahman Shiri, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Mark G. Shrime, Inga D Sigfusdottir, Donald H. Silberberg, Edgar P. Simard, Shireen Sindi, Abhishek Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Lavanya Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Erica Leigh Slepak, Karen Sliwa, Samir Soneji, Kjetil Søreide, Sergey Soshnikov, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Dan J. Stein, Murray B. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Timothy J. Steiner, Antony Stevens, Andrea Stewart, Lars Jacob Stovner, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Bruno Sunguya, Soumya Swaminathan, Mamta Swaroop, Bryan L. Sykes, Karen M. Tabb, Ken Takahashi, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanné, Marcel Tanner, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Hugh R. Taylor, Braden Te Ao, Fabrizio Tediosi, Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, Tara Templin, Margreet ten Have, Eric Y. Tenkorang, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Blake Thomson, Andrew Thorne‐Lyman, Amanda G. Thrift, George D. Thurston, Taavi Tillmann, Marcello Tonelli, Fotis Topouzis, Hideaki Toyoshima, Jefferson Traebert, Bach Xuan Tran, Matias Trillini, Thomas Truelsen, Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris, E. Murat Tuzcu, Uche S Uchendu, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Selen Begüm Uzun, Wim H. van Brakel, Steven van de Vijver, Coen H. van Gool, Jim van Os, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Gregory R. Wagner, Joseph A. Wagner, Stephen G. Waller, Xia Wan, Haidong Wang, JianLi Wang, Tati Suryati Warouw, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, James D. Wilkinson, Thomas N. Williams, Charles Wolfe, Timothy M Wolock, Anthony D. Woolf, Sarah Wulf, Brittany Wurtz, Gelin Xu, Lijing L. Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Pengpeng Ye, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Yong Zhao, Yingfeng Zheng, David Zonies, Xiaonong Zou, Joshua A. Salomon, Alan D López, Theo Vos
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Lancet · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicHealth disparities and outcomes
Canadian institutionsHealth Sciences CentreHealth CanadaWestern UniversityUniversity of TorontoUniversity of British ColumbiaUniversity of AlbertaUniversité de MontréalUniversity of CalgaryMemorial University of NewfoundlandPublic Health Agency of Canada
FundersNational Institute of Environmental Health SciencesNational Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney DiseasesRussian Academy of SciencesNational Health and Medical Research CouncilNHLBI Division of Intramural ResearchMedical Center, University of RochesterNational Institute on Deafness and Other Communication DisordersAllerganH. Lundbeck A/SMedical Research CouncilServierUniversità degli Studi di PerugiaTokyo Women's Medical UniversityUniversity of PeradeniyaArak University of Medical SciencesSpecialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of ChinaUniversità degli Studi di SalernoNational Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud MentalNational Taiwan UniversityUniversity of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterNational Institutes of HealthTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesFudan UniversityPublic Health Foundation of IndiaPublic Health EnglandMonash UniversityAgencia Española de Medicamentos y Productos SanitariosUniversitat de ValènciaSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen ForschungUniversity of LeicesterEngineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilAstraZenecaNational Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research UnitCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorUniversity of California, San DiegoConsortium of International Agricultural Research CentersAmarin CorporationWageningen University and ResearchCancer Research UKUniversity of Massachusetts BostonArabian Gulf UniversitySavient PharmaceuticalsFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do SulUniversity of CyprusEconomic and Social Research CouncilUniversidad de la República UruguayUniversity of Occupational and Environmental HealthNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchUniversitat de BarcelonaBrien Holden Vision InstituteJames Cook UniversityUniversity at AlbanyUniversity of SouthamptonWellcome TrustMassey UniversityBritish Heart FoundationOklahoma Center for the Advancement of Science and TechnologyRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDeutsches KrebsforschungszentrumUniversity of RochesterUniversity of OtagoPfizerBill and Melinda Gates FoundationOhio State UniversityRensselaer Polytechnic InstituteCyprus University of TechnologyUniversitair Medisch Centrum GroningenEunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentU.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesAuckland University of Technology, New ZealandNational Institute for Social Care and Health ResearchNational Science FoundationConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoUniversity of OklahomaUniversity of LiverpoolNational Heart, Lung, and Blood InstituteBrandeis University
KeywordsLife expectancyEpidemiological transitionEpidemiologyYears of potential life lostMedicineEnvironmental healthGerontologyDemographySociologyPopulationPathology
Abstract
No abstract in any covered source. Its absence is recorded, not treated as a negative.
No abstract. This is not a gap in this database; OpenAlex has none either. 23.3% of the frame is in this state, and the screen finds HALF as much metaresearch here, so the absence is a measured bias rather than a missing field.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.075
Threshold uncertainty score0.149
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.227
GPT teacher head0.425
Teacher spread0.198 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations2,012
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractno