Developmental Trajectories of Body Mass Index in Early Childhood and Their Risk Factors
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify groups of children with distinct developmental trajectories of body mass index (BMI), calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared, between the ages of 5 months and 8 years and identify early-life risk factors that distinguish children in an atypically elevated BMI trajectory group. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Families with a child born between October 1997 and July 1998 in the province of Quebec, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: A representative sample of children (N = 2120) selected through birth registries for the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development. Children for whom BMI data were available for at least 5 time points were retained in the present study (n = 1957). MAIN EXPOSURES: Early-life factors putatively associated with BMI, assessed by maternal report. OUTCOME MEASURE: Group-based trajectories of children's BMI, identified with a semiparametric modeling method from raw BMI values at each age. RESULTS: Three trajectories of BMI were identified: low-stable (54.5% of children), moderate (41.0%), and high-rising (4.5%). The high-rising group was characterized by an increasing average BMI, which exceeded international cutoff values for obesity by age 8 years. Two maternal risk factors were associated with the high-rising group as compared with the low-stable and moderate groups combined: maternal BMI (odds ratio, 2.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-4.54 for maternal overweight and 6.33; 3.82-11.85 for maternal obesity) and maternal smoking during pregnancy (2.28; 1.49-4.04). CONCLUSIONS: Children continuing on an elevated BMI trajectory leading to obesity in middle childhood can be distinguished from children on a normative BMI trajectory as early as age 3.5 years. Important and preventable risk factors for childhood obesity are in place before birth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".