Three Patterns of Rising type 2 Diabetes Prevalence in the World: Need to Widen the Concept of Prevention in Individuals into Control in the Community
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyses the patterns of rising type 2 diabetes prevalence in the world with their plausible reasons focusing on control measures. It shows existence of combinations of three patterns of rises, viz. gradual, rapid and accelerated, leading to prevalence of 4-9% now in Europids, 14-20% in migrant or urbanized Asian Indians, Arabs, Chinese, Africans, and Hispanics and above 30-50% in indigenous peoples of Canada, USA, Australia and Pacific regions. It demonstrates that though ageing, sedentary life and obesity of people explain gradual rise in Europids, effects of rapid transition in nutritional status of population and of maternal hyperglycaemia on the risk of offspring developing glucose intolerance further add to rapid and accelerated rises respectively. It recommends that current approach of primary prevention of diabetes in people, particularly with impaired glucose tolerance, advocating modest loss of excess weight and moderate-intensity exercise, be widen into concept of control in community covering rapid and accelerated rises. The control programmes essentially are vigorous educational campaign and planning to improve nutritional status of women of childbearing age in rural and poorer sectors of society and to keep weight of adults within recommended body mass index (BMI) range, like 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 for Asian and other similar populations. The population-based approaches with examples, considering developing countries, are outlined. The paper emphasizes the importance of keeping prepregnancy weight optimum, preferably below the middle of recommended BMI range, to avoid even sub-clinical maternal hyperglycemia, for prevention and control of accelerated rise in any population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".