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Record W2146820809 · doi:10.1080/1088937x.2010.493308

A review of the International Northern Sea Route Program (INSROP) – 10 years on

2010· review· en· W2146820809 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Rogers Brubaker, Claes Lykke Ragner

Bibliographic record

VenuePolar Geography · 2010
Typereview
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicArctic and Russian Policy Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersMinistry of Education, IndiaMinistry of Earth Sciences
KeywordsOceanographyGeographyGeology

Abstract

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Abstract The objective of the International Northern Sea Route Program was to create a knowledge bank covering commercial, international shipping on Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR). Addressed were: considerations of the natural environment, ice navigation, and ship technology; the environment; economics of shipping; and military, political, legal, and indigenous cultural issues. Conclusions included improvements in vessel designs and associated activities represented the safe course for extending navigation. Scientific evidence generally did not exist that civilian navigation had resulted in significant environmental stress; the NSR thus could plan for environmental concerns and avoid devastating impacts. It was necessary for the Russian government to include the NSR in plans for its extractive industries. There were resource commodities well-suited for creating a sustainable cargo flow, but the necessary domestic and foreign investments would have to be provided. The NSR lacked strategic and military importance and held solely civilian, commercial potential. Except for the high seas, the USA would require its commercial vessels to follow the Russian regime, including fees if not discriminatory and for services rendered. For indigenous cultures NSR effects could be both positive and negative; primary was the need to be included in creating the NSR framework and indigenous perspectives viewed and treated equally. Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their appreciation to Professor Edgar Gold, Professor Hiromitsu Kitagawa, and Environmental Consultant Kjell A. Moe, participants in INSROP from the start, for their contributions. Notes 1. INSROP homepage, at http://www.fni.no/insrop/ 2. By 1993–1998 exchange rates this equalled approximately US$8–9 million. 3. INSROP statistics are summarized in the INSROP Program Report (INSROP Secretariat Citation1999). 4. INSROP's early history and organization are described in the very first issue of the INSROP Newsletter (INSROP Secretariat Citation1993). 5. Adapted from Brigham et al. (Citation1999): 116–120 and Østreng (1999): 414–418. Comments and technical editing are added by Professor Hiromitsu Kitagawa, author and editor of this section. 6. Respectively, European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) and Radar Satellite (RADARSAT) system. The latter was developed by Canada to monitor global environmental changes. In addition the European Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) launched in 2002 is the largest earth observation spacecraft providing continuous observations and monitoring of the Earth's land, atmosphere, oceans, and ice caps (E. Gold, Working Paper, email communication to D. Brubaker, 29 March 2008). 7. The prediction holds as long as the definition of ice classification was applied to ice age, i.e. first-year ice, multi-year ice, or ice extent. Satellite images could not alone provide reliable or satisfactory information of appropriate vessel routings, and captains of vessels needed considerable experience in analyzing satellite images for obtaining useful information related to routings (H. Kitagawa, Blank, email communication to D. Brubaker, 26 March 2008). 8. For more information on the Azipod propulsion system, see What is Azipod (Citation2006). 9. Statistic data of vessel damage is one of the key factors governing the development of safe vessels, navigations, ship structure, regulations, and marine insurance. Damage data includes items, such as date, time, wind and waves, location, particulars of ship, vessel speed, damage details, and captain's comments. The INSROP data received was rather ambiguous and there were problems trusting the published Russian vessel damage data that occurred during the Soviet era. It appeared captains expected a high possibility for vessel damage occurring; it was the nature of things. Close-towing which was a particular Russian manner of escorting cargo vessels required much skill of the captains of the escorting and escorted vessels and this could partly be responsible for the damage occurring under icebreaker escort. However, the Russians would not admit to such damage occurring. Further, vessel damage often occurred on the NSR at the end of the summer season. Under INSROP the Russians were requested many times to release reliable statistical data of vessel damage, but the requests were refused (H. Kitagawa, Blank, email communication to D. Brubaker, 26 March 2008 and 3 May 2008). 10. The Conference on the Harmonization of Polar Ship Rules led to the development of the recommendary IMO Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-covered Waters (Arctic Guidelines) (IMO Citation2002), in 2009 modified to become Guidelines for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Guidelines) (IMO Citation2009), as well as the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Unified Requirements for Polar Ships (IACS Citation2007), to be uniformly applied by IACS Societies on ships contracted for construction on and after 1 March 2008. According to Det Norske Veritas' Senior Vice President W. Magelssen (personal communication, 26 January 2007), this contains polar class descriptions and application, structural requirements, and machinery requirements, however, allow each member society a certain amount of discretion and polar class vessels may thus still be certified under different sets of rules. Owners of new vessels may choose whether the unified IACS requirements will be utilised or the specific society requirements. For descriptions of the initial conference process see Santos-Pedro (Citation2004). 11. Under § 1.7 the Marine Operation Headquarters is defined as special navigational services of the Murmansk and Far East Shipping Companies, directly performing ice operations on the NSR, under the general coordination by the Administration. Under § 1.3 the Administration is defined as the Administration of the NSR of the USSR (Russian Federation) Ministry of Merchant Marine, established by the USSR Council of Ministers Decision No. 683 of 16 September 1971, and having its location at ¼ Rozhdestvenka, Moscow, 103759 USSR (Russian Federation). 12. ULA is the Russian Registry designation for the highest ice able class of vessel, including the Noril'sk. 13. See Juurmaa et al. (Citation2002). 14. Østreng (Citation1999): 417, Available online at: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/bering (accessed 31 December 1998), which does not appear available now (access attempt 7 January 2010). 15. Østreng (1999): 417, cites AMAP (1997), Arctic Pollution Issues: A State of the Arctic Environment Report. Oslo: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 159–169. Ibid. p. 116 notes based upon Russian reports, large seasonal and interannual changes of sea ice in the Russian Arctic seas during the twentieth century. This included from approximately 1900–1945 a general warming of the Arctic resulting in exploration of the NSR, 1945–1985 a general cooling with difficult ice conditions and in the final decade significant regional reductions in sea ice particularly in the East Siberian Sea. 16. Adapted from Moe and Semanov (Citation1999): 210–214 and Østreng (1999): 421. Comments are added by Environmental Consultant Kjell A. Moe author and program leader of this section. 17. ArcView is GIS software for visualizing, managing, creating, and analyzing geographic data. 18. ArcInfo is GIS which adds to ArcView advanced spatial analysis, extensive data manipulation, and high-end cartography. UNIX is a trademarked computer-operating system. 19. Persistent organic pollutants are organic compounds that are resistant to environmental degradation through chemical, biological, and photolytic processes. Because of this they have been observed to persist in the environment, to be capable of long-range transport, bio-accumulate in human and animal tissue, bio-magnify in food chains, and to have potential, significant impacts on human health and the environment. 20. Polynyas are stretches of open water surrounded by ice. 21. Trophic level is each of several hierarchical levels in an ecosystem comprising organisms sharing the same function in the food chain and the same nutritional relationship to the sources of energy. 22. For discussion, see Moe and Semanov (Citation1999): 216. An overview of World Bank Projects in Russia is available online at: http://web.worldbank.org/external/projects/main?pagePK=217672&piPK=95916&theSitePK=40941&menuPK=223661&category=regcountries&regioncode=5&countrycode=RU&pagenumber=1&pagesize=50&totalrecords=91&sortby=BOARDSORTDATE&sortorder=DESC (accessed 7 January 2010). While mention is made of the checklists, as related to mitigating measures for relevant activities and developments covering the NSR these did not appear to be now available. 23. Adapted from Tamvakis et al. (Citation1999): 278–280 and Østreng (1999): 419 and 423–424. Comments and technical editing are added by Professor Edgar Gold, one of the authors of this section. 24. Both the International Underwriting Association (IUA) and the Salvage Association are based in London. 25. Adapted from Østreng et al. (Citation1999b): 334–336, 349–355, 359–361, and 362–363 and Østreng (1999): 365, generally 366–413 and 422–425. Specific authors of Østreng et al. (Citation1999b) are identified as W. Østreng, lead author responsible for pp. 281–314, 337–339, and 362–363, as well as editing; A.L. Kolodkin, responsible for pp. 314–325; D. Brubaker, responsible for pp. 326–336; and J.L. Jernsletten, responsible for pp. 339–361. Comments and technical editing are added by Dr. R. Douglas Brubaker, program leader of this section. 26. The Russian Arctic straits were not entered by the US vessels. 27. Natural and societal parameters were linked together to better address the complexity, distribution, variability, interactional pattern and value composition of the navigational challenges facing the NSR The objective was to identify geographical areas where the parameters multiply, mix, interact, and cluster together in aggregations, making the passage of vessels a complex, multi-faceted challenge, with these areas termed aggregated hot spots. The Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas are addressed as well as the multiple realities of the NSR. The Table 'Qualitative assessment of the geographical location of issue specific hot spots, aggregated hot spots and cool spots along the NSR' appears at Østreng (Citation1999): 406–407 as well as Maps 'Geographical spots of varying navigability along the whole stretch of the NSR winter/summer,' at Østreng (Citation1999): 409–410.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Other design · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: Review
Teacher disagreement score0.985
Threshold uncertainty score0.572

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.033
GPT teacher head0.366
Teacher spread0.332 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designOther design
Domainnot available
GenreReview

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations28
Published2010
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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