Reemergence and Amplification of Tuberculosis in the Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Between November 2011 and November 2012, a Canadian village of 933 persons had 50 culture-positive cases of tuberculosis, with 49 sharing the same genotype. METHODS: We performed Illumina-based whole-genome sequencing on Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from this village, during and before the outbreak. Phylogenetic trees were generated using the maximum likelihood method. RESULTS: Three distinct genotypes were identified. Strain I (n = 7) was isolated in 1991-1996. Strain II (n = 8) was isolated in 1996-2004. Strain III (n = 62) first appeared in 2007 and did not arise from strain I or II. Within strain III, there were 3 related but distinct clusters: IIIA, IIIB, and IIIC. Between 2007 and 2010, cluster IIIA predominated (11 of 22 vs 2 of 40; P < .001), whereas in 2011-2012 clusters IIIB (n = 18) and IIIC (n = 20) predominated over cluster IIIA (n = 11). Combined evolutionary and epidemiologic analysis of strain III cases revealed that the outbreak in 2011-2012 was the result of ≥6 temporally staggered events, spanning from 1 reactivation case to a point-source outbreak of 20 cases. CONCLUSIONS: After the disappearance of 2 strains of M. tuberculosis in this village, its reemergence in 2007 was followed by an epidemiologic amplification, affecting >5% of the population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".