Synoptic climatology of Northern Hemisphere available potential energy collapses
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Three recurring regional patterns of extratropical baroclinic development associated with synoptic-scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere available potential energy (APE) are identified using a 1979–95 time series derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. A time series of the intraseasonal signal (from 1.6 to 180 days) of APE is used to discern an average cycle of approximately 3 days in the APE generation rate dA/dt (referred to as APE depletion rate if negative). An APE depletion event is defined as a fall and subsequent rise in the time series of dA/dt associated with this cycle.We define synoptic-scale APE collapses as APE depletion events with maximum depletion rates (dA/dtmin) and maximum APE falls (ΔAmin) of less than — 0.145×106 J m-2 day-1 and —0.280×106 J m-2, respectively. All are cold season (15 October–15 April) events. APE collapses were classified based on the evolution of regional synoptic patterns during the 2 days centered at the time of dA/dtmin. All are accompanied by deep tropospheric warming. The west Pacific warm surge (Type A) is driven by cyclogenesis over Japan and anticyclogenesis over the west-central North Pacific. The Bering warm surge (Type B) is associated with an intense southerly flow across the Bering Strait brought on by cyclogenesis near the Kamchatka Peninsula and an intense anticyclone over Alaska. The Atlantic Canada warm surge (Type C) is characterized by an onshore flow of warm air ahead of a continental storm track over eastern North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".