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Record W2148290296 · doi:10.1002/for.1116

Risk factor beta conditional value‐at‐risk

2008· article· en· W2148290296 on OpenAlexaff
Andrei Semenov

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Forecasting · 2008
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFinancial Markets and Investment Strategies
Canadian institutionsYork University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPortfolioEconometricsEconomicsValue at riskIndex (typography)Benchmark (surveying)Value (mathematics)PercentileAsset (computer security)Capital asset pricing modelPortfolio optimizationEstimationFinancial economicsStatisticsComputer scienceMathematicsRisk managementFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract We propose a new approach to the estimation of the portfolio Value‐at‐Risk. Based on the assumption that the same macroeconomic factors affect returns of all assets in a portfolio, this methodology allows the generation of the sequence of hypothetical future equilibrium portfolio returns given the historical values of the underlying macroeconomic factors and the asset betas with respect to these factors. Value‐at‐Risk is then found as an appropriate percentile of the corresponding hypothetical distribution of the portfolio profits and losses. The backtesting results for the six Fama–French benchmark portfolios and the S&P500 index show that this approach yields reasonably accurate estimates of the portfolio Value‐at‐Risk. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.021
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.017

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.021
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.003
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.068
GPT teacher head0.219
Teacher spread0.152 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2008
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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