Low seroprevalence of Murray Valley Encephalitis and Kunjin viruses in an opportunistic serosurvey, Victoria 2011
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess evidence of recent and past exposure to Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and West Nile clade Kunjin virus (KUNV) in residents of the Murray Valley, Victoria, during a period of demonstrated activity of both viruses in early 2011. METHODS: A cross-sectional serosurvey using two convenience samples: stored serum specimens from a diagnostic laboratory in Mildura and blood donors from the Murray Valley region. Specimens were collected between April and July 2011. The main outcome measure was total antibody (IgM and IgG) reactivity against MVEV and KUNV measured using an enzyme immunoassay and defined as inhibiting binding of monoclonal antibodies by >50%, when compared to negative controls. Evidence of recent exposure was measured by the presence of MVEV and KUNV IgM detected by immunofluorescence. RESULTS: Of 1,115 specimens, 24 (2.2%, 95% CI 1.3-3.0%) were positive for MVEV total antibody, and all were negative for MVEV IgM. Of 1,116 specimens, 34 (3.1%, 95% CI 2.0-4.0%) were positive for KUNV total antibody, and 3 (0.27%) were KUNV IgM positive. Total antibody seroprevalence for both viruses was higher in residents born before 1974. CONCLUSIONS: Despite widespread MVEV and KUNV activity in early 2011, this study found that seroprevalence of antibodies to both viruses was low (<5%) and little evidence of recent exposure. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings suggest both viruses remain epizootic in the region and local residents remain potentially susceptible to future outbreaks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".