Relative value of limnological, geographic, and human use variables as predictors of the presence of Bythotrephes longimanus in Canadian Shield lakes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Eurasian aquatic invader Bythotrephes longimanus has spread rapidly throughout the Great Lakes watershed, particularly in Ontario, Canada, since its introduction in 1982. To date, the documentation of its spread has been largely anecdotal, not the result of planned surveys, so the actual distribution of the invader and the determinants of its distribution in Ontario remain uncertain. We surveyed 193 lakes in south-central Ontario to determine the importance of lake size, lake location, hydrological connection, and various physical, chemical, and human activity parameters in predicting the spread of Bythotrephes within the 1600-lake Muskoka watershed, North America’s most heavily invaded lake region. Invaded lakes were larger than uninvaded lakes and had less acidic, more nutrient-poor, clearer waters. Contingency analyses indicated that invaded lakes were more accessible to humans and had more heavily developed shorelines. Shoreline coverage by cottages was the strongest predictor of Bythotrephes presence when all physical, chemical, and human use variables were included in a logistic regression model. Our results support the growing consensus that humans are primarily responsible for the spread of Bythotrephes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".