Shifting baselines and the decline of pelagic sharks in the Gulf of Mexico
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Historical abundances of many large marine vertebrates were tremendously greater than today. However, while pelagic sharks are known to have declined rapidly in the northwest Atlantic in recent years, there, as elsewhere, little is known about the former natural abundances of these species. Here, we compare initial (1950s) and recent (late‐1990s) standardized catch rates of pelagic sharks in the Gulf of Mexico, the area where methods of exploitation between these two periods were most comparable. We estimate that oceanic whitetip and silky sharks, formerly the most commonly caught shark species, have declined by over 99 and 90%, respectively. That the former prevalence of oceanic whitetip sharks in this ecosystem is unrecognized today is clear evidence of shifting baselines. Our analysis provides the missing baseline for pelagic sharks in the Gulf of Mexico that is needed for the rational management and restoration of these species.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it