Two-tiered violence risk estimates: A validation study of an integrated-actuarial risk assessment instrument.
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study is an initial validation study of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates instrument (TTV), a violence risk appraisal instrument designed to support an integrated-actuarial approach to violence risk assessment. The TTV was scored retrospectively from file information on a sample of violent offenders. Construct validity was examined by comparing the TTV with instruments that have shown utility to predict violence that were prospectively scored: The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF). Predictive validity was examined through a long-term follow-up of 12.4 years with a sample of 78 incarcerated offenders. Results show the TTV to be highly correlated with the HCR-20 and LCSF. The base rate for violence over the follow-up period was 47.4%, and the TTV was equally predictive of violent recidivism relative to the HCR-20 and LCSF. Discussion centers on the advantages of an integrated-actuarial approach to the assessment of violence risk.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it