The Grants are Falling! The Grants are Falling! How Municipal Governments Changed Taxes in Response to Provincial Support in New Brunswick, 1983–2003
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The real value of grants to New Brunswick municipal councils from the provincial government fell dramatically from 1983 to 2003. At the same time, municipal property tax rates increased, especially among municipalities with comparatively low tax rates in 1983. This study uses an econometric model of the joint determination of local property tax rates and local property tax bases to examine the hypothesis that municipal responses to falling grants were constrained by tax competition. After controlling for observable characteristics, there is little evidence of spatial interaction among jurisdictions, suggesting that tax competition was not a major factor in municipal decisions. The grant cuts themselves appear to be a far more important determinant of changes in property tax rates. There is also some evidence that the tax base is sensitive to a municipality's own tax rates. However, the elasticity of the tax base with respect to the tax rate is small enough that there remains scope for municipalities to increase tax revenue by increasing their tax rates.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it