Leadership and Uncertainty in Fiscal Restructuring: Ralph Klein and Roy Romanow
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract.In the literature on leadership, the Certainty Axiom holds that leaders exercise leadership through reassuring uncertain citizens. It is thought that policy entrepreneurs particularly must supply much certainty to lead people to adopt new policies. A new theory—the Strategic Manipulation of Uncertainty (SMU) model—challenges this axiom. Its propositions hold that political leaders may strategically address public uncertainty to secure specific objectives. Risk-averse, traditional (“transactional”) leaders communicate more certainty, and less uncertainty, than their transformational counterparts. Risk-acceptant, entrepreneurial (“transformational”) leaders supply less certainty, and more uncertainty, than their transactional counterparts. Testing these hypotheses through analyzing the public speeches of Saskatchewan Premier Roy Romanow and Alberta Premier Ralph Klein supports the SMU model. As a transactional leader, Premier Romanow communicated more certainty, and less uncertainty, than Premier Klein. Premier Klein communicated less certainty, and more uncertainty, than Premier Romanow. The results challenge the utility of the Certainty Axiom and suggest that leaders address citizens' uncertainty strategically, increasing it or reducing it, in pursuit of particular policy objectives. Résumé.Dans la littérature sur le leadership, l'axiome de la certitude stipule que les dirigeants exercent leur leadership en réassurant les citoyens incertains. On considère que les initiateurs de politiques publiques en particulier doivent transmettre beaucoup de certitude pour convaincre le public d'adopter de nouvelles politiques. Une nouvelle théorie—le modèle de la Manipulation stratégique de l'incertitude—remet en question cet axiome. Ce modèle propose que les dirigeants politiques puissent s'adresser stratégiquement à l'incertitude du public afin d'atteindre des objectifs spécifiques. Les dirigeants traditionnels, prenant peu de risques (“ transactionnels ”), communiquent plus de certitude, et moins d'incertitude, tandis que les dirigeants prenant des risques, entreprenant (“ transformationnels ”), offrent moins de certitude et plus d'incertitude. Ces hypothèses sont testées en analysant les discours publics du Premier Ministre de la Saskatchewan, Roy Romanow et du Premier Ministre de l'Alberta, Ralph Klein. Ceci confirme le modèle. En tant que dirigeant “ transactionnel ”, Roy Romanow était plus rassurant que son homologue, Ralph Klein, en ce qui concerne la restructuration fiscale. Les résultats contestent l'utilité de l'axiome de la certitude et suggèrent que les dirigeants entreprenants peuvent bénéficier de l'incertitude des citoyens.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".