Virulence evolution via host exploitation and toxin production in spore‐producing pathogens
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many pathogens produce resilient free‐living propagules that allow their dissemination in the absence of direct contact between susceptible and infected hosts. One might expect pathogens capable of producing such long‐lived propagules to evolve high levels of virulence because their reproductive success is de‐coupled from the survival of their host. Despite some comparative data supporting this prediction, theory has questioned its general validity. I present theoretical results that incorporate two transmission routes neglected by previous theory: death‐mediated propagule production and direct host‐host transmission. This theory predicts that spore‐producing pathogens should evolve high levels of virulence under quite broad conditions. Moreover, a novel prediction of this theory is that the production of propagules can generate selection for the evolution of pathogen characteristics such as toxins whose sole function is to kill the host. This latter result reveals an unanticipated mechanism through which virulence is expected to evolve in spore‐producing pathogens.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".