The Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in the Age Group 0–39 Years Has Not Increased in Antwerp (Belgium) Between 1989 and 2000
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: A worldwide increase in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes has been observed. Because in various countries the majority of new type 1 diabetic patients are diagnosed in adulthood, we investigated whether the rising incidence of this disorder in children reflects a global increase in the incidence of diabetes or a shift toward earlier clinical presentation. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The incidence of type 1 diabetes presenting before age 40 years was prospectively measured in the Antwerp district over a 12-year period (1989-2000). The completeness of ascertainment was evaluated by the capture-recapture method. Trends in incidence during the study period were analyzed by Poisson regression. RESULTS: The incidence of type 1 diabetes diagnosed before age 40 years remained constant over the 12-year period, averaging 9.9 cases per 100,000 individuals per year. The incidence was similar in both sexes under age 15 years, but a marked male excess was noted for adult-onset disease, in particular after age 20 years, resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 0.9 under age 15 years vs. 1.6 thereafter (P = 0.001). During the 12-year observation period, there was a significant tendency toward increasing incidence under age 15 years at the expense of a decreasing incidence between ages 15 and 40 years (P = 0.025). The annual increase in incidence averaged 1.8% under age 15 years and 5.0% under age 5 years (P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that in Belgium, the increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes-especially for children under age 5 years-is not attributable to a global increase in disease incidence, but rather to earlier clinical manifestation. The results suggest that an environmental factor may preferentially accelerate the subclinical disease process in young diabetes-prone subjects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".