Pushing up smoking incidence: plans for a privatised tobacco industry in Moldova
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Moldova, one of the former Soviet republics and Europe's poorest country, has so far resisted pressure to privatise its tobacco industry. This paper examines the policies pursued by the transnational tobacco companies in Moldova in order to inform the ongoing debate about tobacco industry privatisation. We analysed relevant internal industry documents made public through litigation. The documents suggest that although a competitive tender for the state owned monopoly was later announced, British American Tobacco (BAT) and the German manufacturer Reemtsma each initially sought to secure a closed deal, with BAT accusing Reemtsma of underhand tactics. Imperial Tobacco, which now owns Reemstma, was unable to comment on these allegations as it only acquired Reemstma after the events in question. BAT sought to acquire a monopoly position, bolstered by excise rules developed by the company that would uniquely favour its products. Despite hoping to establish a monopoly, it planned intensive marketing, as if in a competitive market, aiming to target young urban dwellers, particularly opinion leaders. In so doing it predicted that smoking uptake would increase, especially among women. The documents also suggest that BAT was aware of the sensitive nature of its plans to cull the processing workforce and aimed to present "sanitised" information on future employment levels to the Moldovans. The potential for tobacco industry privatisation to undermine tobacco control and promote cigarette consumption is highlighted and is consistent with economic theory. Countries planning tobacco industry privatisation should ensure a transparent and competitive privatisation process, seek to prevent the predicted increase in consumption by implementing effective tobacco control policies and consider the impacts on employment. Multilateral financial organisations promoting tobacco industry privatisation could ensure their loan conditions protect public health by making the implementation of tobacco control policies a pre-requisite for privatisation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".