A validation study of a clinical prediction rule for screening asymptomatic chlamydia and gonorrhoea infections among heterosexuals in British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: One component of effective sexually transmitted infections (STIs) control is ensuring those at highest risk of STIs have access to clinical services because terminating transmission in this group will prevent most future cases. Here, we describe the results of a validation study of a clinical prediction rule for identifying individuals at increased risk for chlamydia and gonorrhoea infection derived in Vancouver, British Columbia (BC), against a population of asymptomatic patients attending sexual health clinics in other geographical settings in BC. METHODS: We examined electronic records (2000-2012) from clinic visits at seven sexual health clinics in geographical locations outside Vancouver. The model's calibration and discrimination were examined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic, respectively. We also examined the sensitivity and proportion of patients that would need to be screened at different cut-offs of the risk score. RESULTS: The prevalence of infection was 5.3% (n=10 425) in the geographical validation population. The prediction rule showed good performance in this population (AUC, 0.69; H-L p=0.26). Possible risk scores ranged from -2 to 27. We identified a risk score cut-off point of ≥8 that detected cases with a sensitivity of 86% by screening 63% of the geographical validation population. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction rule showed good generalisability in STI clinics outside of Vancouver with improved discriminative performance compared with temporal validation. The prediction rule has the potential for augmenting triaging services in STI clinics and enhancing targeted testing in population-based screening programmes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".