Predicting and preventing postconcussive problems in paediatrics (5P) study: protocol for a prospective multicentre clinical prediction rule derivation study in children with concussion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Persistent postconcussive symptoms (PCSs) is the persistence of somatic, cognitive, physical, psychological and/or behavioural changes lasting more than 1 month following concussion. Persistent concussion impacts the quality of life through impaired cognition, memory and attention affecting school performance, mood and social engagement. No large epidemiological studies have determined the true prevalence of persistent concussion symptoms. Validated, easy-to-use prognosticators do not exist for clinicians to identify children at highest risk. The goal of Predicting and Preventing Postconcussive Problems in Pediatrics study is to derive a clinical prediction rule for the development of persistent postconcussion symptoms in children and adolescents presenting to emergency department following acute head injury. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a prospective, multicentre cohort study across nine academic Canadian paediatric emergency departments. We will recruit the largest prospective epidemiological cohort of children with concussion. Eligible children will be followed using Post-Concussion Symptom Inventory, a validated tool in children as young as 5 years. Patients will follow-up at 1, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks postinjury. The main outcome will be the presence/absence of PCSs defined as three or more persistent concussion symptoms 1 month following the injury. 1792 patients provide adequate power to derive a clinical decision rule using multivariate analyses to find predictor variables sensitive for detecting cases of persistent postconcussion symptoms. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Results of this large prospective study will enable clinicians to identify children at highest risk, optimise treatment and provide families with realistic and appropriate anticipatory guidance. Ethics has been obtained through the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Ethics Board. Results will be disseminated at international conferences and in four manuscripts to peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov through the US National Institute of Health/National Library of Medicine (NCT01873287; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01873287).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.051 | 0.050 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.032 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".