Polar cap precursor of nightside auroral oval intensifications using polar cap arcs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Recent radar and optical observations suggested that localized fast flows in the polar cap precede disturbances within the nightside auroral oval. However, how commonly this connection occurs has been difficult to examine due to limited coverage of radar flow measurements and diffuse and dim nature of airglow patches. Polar cap arcs are also associated with fast flows in the polar cap and appear much brighter than patches, allowing evaluation of the interaction between polar cap structures and nightside aurora more definitively. We have surveyed data during six winter seasons and selected quasi‐steady polar cap arcs lasting >1 h. Thirty‐four arcs are found, and for the majority (~85%) of them, as they extend equatorward from high latitude, their contact with the nightside auroral poleward boundary is associated with new and substantial intensifications within the oval. These intensifications are localized (< ~1 h magnetic local time (MLT)) and statistically occur within 10 min and ±1 h MLT from the contact. They appear as poleward boundary intensifications in a thick auroral oval or an intensification of the only resolvable arc within a thin oval, and the latter can also exhibit substantial poleward expansion. When radar echoes are available, they corroborate the association of polar cap arcs with localized enhanced antisunward flows. That the observed oval intensifications are major disturbances that only occur after the impingement of polar cap arcs and near the contact longitude suggest that they are triggered by localized fast flows coming from deep in the polar cap.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".