Does children's energy intake at one meal influence their intake at subsequent meals? Or do we just think it does?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is widely believed that young children are able to adjust their energy intake across successive meals to compensate for higher or lower intakes at a given meal. This conclusion is based on past observations that although children's intake at individual meals is highly variable, total daily intakes are relatively constant. We investigated how much of this reduction in variability could be explained by the statistical phenomenon of the variability of individual components (each meal) always being relatively larger than the variability of their sum (total daily intake), independent of any physiological compensatory mechanism. We calculated, theoretically and by simulation, how variable a child's daily intake would be if there was no correlation between intakes at individual meals. We simulated groups of children with meal/snack intakes and variability in meal/snack intakes based on previously published values. Most importantly, we assumed that there was no correlation between intakes on successive meals. In both approaches, the coefficient of variation of the daily intakes was roughly 15%, considerably less than the 34% for individual meals. Thus, most of the reduction in variability found in past studies was explained without positing strong 'compensation'. Although children's daily energy intakes are indeed considerably less variable than their individual components, this phenomenon was observed even when intakes at each meal were simulated to be totally independent. We conclude that the commonly held belief that young children have a strong physiological compensatory mechanism to adjust intake at one meal based on intake at prior meals is likely to be based on flawed statistical reasoning.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".