Cycles and trends in the recent eruptive behaviour of Mount Etna (Italy)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mount Etna is among the few volcanoes on Earth that erupt nearly continuously, but its activity (in terms of output rate and flank eruption frequency) undergoes significant fluctuations in time. Such fluctuations do not occur randomly, but represent various stages of cycles on a scale of decades and centuries. Recurrent patterns are particularly evident since 1865, with four complete cycles and a fifth one initiated in 1993. Each cycle consists of three phases, beginning with low-level activity followed by nearly continuous summit activity and culminating with a series of flank eruptions, the last commonly being the most voluminous. A distinct increase in the output rate of Etna, along with more frequent and voluminous summit and flank eruptions since 1950, may be interpreted as part of a longer cycle that began after a large eruption in 1669 and has not yet reached its culminating phase. If that trend continues, the activity of Etna might become similar to that of the 17th century, when flank eruptions were more voluminous than they have been since; however, it is difficult to assess when this will take place.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".