Mid‐Holocene NAO: A PMIP2 model intercomparison
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The mid‐Holocene (6000 years before present) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from nine models in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 is studied, primarily through principal component analysis of winter time North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP). Modeled mid‐Holocene NAO and mean SLP show small changes compared to pre‐industrial control runs, with a shift in mean state towards a more positive NAO regime for three of the models. Modeled NAO variability shows little change, with a small increase for some models in the fraction of time spent in the NAO‐negative phase during the mid‐Holocene. Proxy based reconstructions of the NAO indicate a more positive NAO regime compared to present day during the mid‐ Holocene. We hypothesise that there was a small NAO+ like shift in mean state during the mid‐Holocene.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.011 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".