Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is apparent in all three models. On average, the increases in mean GDD 5 (growing degree-days >5 °C) are 18%, 38%, and 65% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Change in precipitation is essentially nil. This results in proportional increases in dryness index. We used the dryness index to predict the potential future range and GDD 5 to predict its potential productivity. Generally, lodgepole pine site index is predicted to increase steadily by 3 m for each 30-year period. Offsetting this increase is a large reduction in suitable area as drying increases. At first, the warming increases the potential range up to 67% by the 2020s but then shrinks from 34% to 58% of its current area by 2080. Such major changes will need to be considered when setting long-term forest management plans. The increased risk of both wildfire and insect outbreaks further compounds this planning problem, especially because these disturbance events can interact and further increase risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".