Predicting Relapse for Catholic Clergy Sex Offenders
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Static-99 is an instrument commonly used to measure the likelihood of recidivism among sex offenders. The current study explores whether the Static-99 is an effective predictor of relapse among Catholic clergy who have had sexual contact with minors. Static-99 scores were compiled for 337 treated clergy who had offended against minors, including 21 who were known to have relapsed after treatment. Clergy were followed up for 5 to 25 years posttreatment (M = 16.05; SD = 5.12) after their completion of treatment. Post release, they were closely supervised, with explicit rules limiting their contacts with minors and church officials monitoring their compliance with posttreatment plans. Descriptive information on the victims of clergy sex offenders is provided. Although all clergy offenders had the same score on 4 of the 10 Static-99 items, Static-99 total scores still significantly predicted relapse with a moderate to large effect size (area under the curve [AUC] = .672; Cohen's d = .808). Predictive accuracy of each item is also reported. Issues concerning the use of the Static-99 with this population are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".