What causes the irregular cycle of the atmospheric tape recorder signal in HCN?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Variations in the mixing ratio of long‐lived trace gases entering the stratosphere in the tropics are carried upward with the rising air with the signal being observable throughout the tropical lower stratosphere. This phenomenon, referred to as “atmospheric tape recorder” has previously been observed for water vapor, CO 2 , and CO which exhibit an annual cycle. Recently, based on Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) satellite measurements, the tape recorder signal has been observed for hydrogen cyanide (HCN) but with an approximately two‐year period. Here we report on a model simulation of the HCN tape recorder for the time period 2002–2008 using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The model can reproduce the observed pattern of the HCN tape recorder signal if time‐resolved emissions from fires in Indonesia are used as lower boundary condition. This finding indicates that inter‐annual variations in biomass burning in Indonesia, which are strongly influenced by El Niño events, control the HCN tape recorder signal. A longer time series of tropical HCN data will probably exhibit an irregular cycle rather than a regular biannual cycle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".